THE REDBIRD REVIEW
It can’t be easy to go to Atlanta, blow a 2-0 lead, and feel a little jab of heartsickness after losing 3-2 in 10 innings. It was a demoralizing way to drop the opener of a three-game series.
The Cardinals had to pick themselves up and recover from the disappointment of losing the first game of Saturday’s doubleheader. The second game – and a potential sweep – was calling.
How would the Cardinals respond? With a splitting headache caused by another loss? Or how about salvaging a doubleheader split?
We couldn’t have asked for anything better. The Cardinals took care of the first challenge by winning 9-5 on Saturday night. They followed with a crisp 6-2 victory on Sunday afternoon.
After absorbing a harsh blow in their first game after the All-Star break, the Cardinals knocked off the Braves for two straight wins, outscoring the home team 15-7.
In doing so the Cardinals:
* Won the series at Atlanta.
* Won the season series with Atlanta, 4-2.
* Won for the fourth time in six games after being dumped by Kansas City in that double-header depressor at Busch Stadium on Jan. 10.
* Got back to five games over .500 (52-47) in their 99th game of 2024.
* Improved to 21-13 (.618) since June 12th, a record that’s second best in the National League over that time.
* Maintained the best record in the National League (37-23, .617) since May 12. Only the Houston Astros have done better than STL over the past 10 weeks.
The Cardinals are 12-4-3 in their last 19 series for an excellent show of consistent success. After a stumble – losing consecutive road series at Philadelphia and Houston, then splitting a four-game set with Colorado at home – the Cardinals got right back to it. They’re 7-2-2 in their last 11 series. They’ve demonstrated staying power and the ability to shake off setbacks and frustration to punch back and avoid a prolonged slump.
The 2024 Cardinals are still surrounded by many questions. There’s the July 30 trading deadline, coming soon. The offense. The decline of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. The overall strength and depth of the starting pitching. The bench. The load of responsibility and dependence that’s put on the bullpen. The odds of continuing to survive and win so many air-tight games.
Another thing to like about the Cardinals’ direction is an evolving personality. Competing hard, yes. Putting in the preparation and the work … absolutely. Serious about winning … no doubt about it. But they’re looser. More playful. Acting silly. Happy to be goofy. Paying comical tributes to teammate “DJ Biscuit” – better known as Alec Burleson. And by the way, is Biscuit the perfect nickname for Burly, or what?
This is different. This is also what happens when younger players are stepping forward to carry the team while the two respected elders, Arenado and Goldschmidt, desperately try to find the form that made them so feared by opponents. Both players are intensely serious. There’s no horseplay. There’s no lightening of the mood. The batter’s box is an intensive-care area. These two proud men are on a grim mission to restore what has been lost.
And when the “kids” see the elders bummed out and distressed and ticked off, it’s got to be hard for the younger guys to step around them to lead the parade, and set a new tone, and all but post a giant sign that says: IT’S OK TO HAVE FUN PLAYING BASEBALL! SMILE!
Willson Contreras is 32, and he burns as hot as any competitor in the game. But there’s a playful, light-hearted side to his persona. Biscuit Burleson is dead serious about hitting … but boy how he loves to swing the bat. Remember playing any kind of baseball as a kid, even in the backyard? The joy of connecting with a pitch and smacking it hard. The glee of running the bases and barreling into home plate with a run. That’s Biscuit.
Rookie Masyn Winn has the flair to go with his talent and intelligence. He’s constantly cursing at his own pop-ups; you can hear him on the Bally Sports Midwest Audio. But he doesn’t hold that anger. He channels it into his next at-bat, his next chance to make a swell play at shortstop. He shakes off the bad stuff, replaces it with positive energy, and proceeds to bug the hell out of opponents by the way he hits to all fields to mess up their defensive alignments.
Brendan Donovan is – and this is a compliment – a dirt player. Diving, sliding, throwing his body around. After games his uniform is a mix of grass stains, dirt smears, and sweat residue. That long hair rides with him.
Lars Nootbaar, a celebrity in Japan. Hyperactive. He was that kid in your grade school that always had the teacher yelling at him to be quiet, sit down, be still, and quit squirming – and don’t eat the glue! That’s for the construction paper! Nootbaar never met a wall that he didn’t want to get acquainted with.
Nolan Gorman is the big younger brother, too strong for his own good at times. Swings as if his entire existence depends on it. Wants to hit every pitch into a nearby river – any river will do. The teammates are in awe of his strength, and they all but have a party in the dugout when an epic home-run warhead leaves his bat. It’s like rooting for a superhuman figure who is out to save the world from evildoers. You can only wait for the big moment to arrive – and then go crazy.
This goes along with the generational shift that I wrote about late last week. The younger hitters have emerged to take charge of this offense. If ‘Nado and Goldy can pull something together – preferably home runs – everybody will be thrilled. But as I said last week, the younger Cardinals know they can’t sit around and wait for the big uncles to save them. The younger birds have to go do it on their own.
Taking over the offense … changing the team personality … putting the fun back into playing baseball. Biscuit and the boys are leading the parade. And they’re making the Cardinals a more likable team.
ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: Milwaukee swept their two-game series at Minnesota and still lead second-place St. Louis by 5.0 games in the NL Central. But the Cardinals improved their positioning in the NL wild-card derby. As noted, the Cards trail No. 1 seed Atlanta by 2 and ½ games and are 1 and ½ games ahead of the three teams (Mets, Diamondbacks, Padres) that are tied for the No. 3 wild card spot. As for the other wild-card applicants, the Cardinals are 4 and ½ games above the Giants and lead the Cubs, Reds and Nationals by 5 and ½.
PLAYOFF ODDS: Excluding the three division leaders – Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers – here are the percentage of probabilities for clinching an NL wild-card pass according to FanGraphs:
Braves, 80.5%
Padres, 39.8%
Diamondbacks, 39.1%
Mets, 37%
Cardinals, 31.2%
But because FanGraphs gives the Cardinals a 16.2 percent of winning the NL Central, the Redbirds have the fifth-best probability (47.5) of making the playoffs among NL teams behind Philly (99.9%), LA (98.9%), Atlanta (88.7%) and Milwaukee (87.8%.)
THE BURLY FILE: Burleson was huge again, drilling the Braves for six hits in 14 at-bats and delivering six of the 16 RBIs the Cardinals had in the three games. Burleson was money when it mattered, going 4 for 7 (.571) with five RBIs when hitting with runners in scoring position.
– Manager Oli Marmol moved Burleson into the No. 2 lineup spot on May 26. Smart move. In 190 plate appearances as the No. 2 hitter this season, Burleson is batting .314 with a .340 onbase percentage, .573 and .918 OPS. He also has 13 home runs and 39 RBIs from the No. 2 slot.
– For perspective, chew on this: among 18 MLB hitters that have at least 190 plate appearances as the No. 2 hitter this season, Burleson is second in slugging and tied for third in batting average. And his .918 OPS is fifth behind Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr., and Trea Turner. Not bad.
– Since the end of May, Burleson leads the National League with 41 RBIs, which is seven more than the next guy on the list, Brandon Nimmo.
– Only one NL player, Ohtani, has more home runs than Burleson since June 1. The score: Ohtani 16, Biscuit 13.
– Since June 1, Burleson is sixth in the NL in slugging percentage (.575) and his wRC+ puts him 51 percent above the league-average hitter.
GOLDY TO THE SEVENTH SPOT: And why not? He;s been failing in the 2-3-4 spots this season. And though this is a sliver of a sample, Goldschmidt seems comfortable when batting fifth or seventh. In 39 plate appearances in those spots, Goldschmidt has hit .333 with a .385 OBP and .556 slug for a .940 OPS. In 378 plate appearances batting second, third or fourth Goldschmidt has struggled with a .214 average, .277 OBP, .353 slug and .629 OPS.
As I wrote Sunday, here’s where Goldy ranks among MLB hitters that have regularly occupied the 2-3-4 lineup spots this season:
* batting average, last
* onbase percentage, last
* slugging percentage, 29th of 31
* OPS, last
* 28.3% strikeout rate, 30th of 31
* 80 wRC+, tied for last and 20 percent below league average.
MILES MIKOLAS: He pitched a dandy game for the Sunday win in Atlanta, allowing seven hits and two runs in six innings. His ERA this season (5.02) makes you grimace. But it’s been a wild ride for Mikolas, and he’s done some really good things.
Here’s what I mean:
– His 13 quality starts are tied for fourth among National League pitchers.
– He’s sixth in the NL with 118 and ⅓ innings pitched.
– Thirteen of his 21 starts have been above average based on the Bill James Game Score formula. Two have been slightly below average, but in one of the two he allowed three runs in six innings. MM’s six other starts have been pretty much have been fertilizer: 27 and ⅓ innings, 11 home runs, 36 earned runs, and an 11.85 ERA. The average Game Score in the six starts was just under 22. The average game score is 50.
THE BULLPEN REPORT: St. Louis relievers worked eight innings and were charged with one run, that coming on the home run allowed by Ryan Fernandez in the 3-2 loss in Saturday’s first game. (That two-run HR also plated an inherited runner that had singled off Cards starting pitcher Kyle Gibson.) But during the two straight wins that clinched the series for the Cardinals, the bullpen pitched eight scoreless innings, allowing two hits and a walk with five strikeouts. That fine work was handled by Kyle Leahy, Fernandez, Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Helsley. The St. Louis relievers had a 1.13 ERA in the three games.
For the season, the St. Louis pen leads the majors in saves (36), is third in holds (76) and ranks fourth with a save rate of 72 percent. The Cardinal bullpen ERA (3.44) ranks fourth in the majors, and their relievers are third overall in Win Probability Added.
The Cardinals have a 2.31 bullpen ERA in the team’s 52 wins. Their bullpen ERA in the seventh-eighth-ninth innings is 2.97, tops in the NL.
The Cardinals are 44-2 when leading a game through seven innings. That’s a .955 winning percentage that ranks first in the NL and second overall.
The Cardinals, at 46-0, are the only NL team with a perfect winning percentage when leading after eight innings. Two AL bullpens have done it, Cleveland (52-0) and Minnesota (43-0).
NEXT ON THE SKED: A tough three-game series at Pittsburgh beginning Monday night. The Pirates (50-49) are in third place in the NL Central, two games behind the second-place Cardinals. The Bucs have played well lately, going 8-2 in the last 10 games. They had won six in a row before losing to Philadelphia on Sunday – but still won two of three from the NL’s best team. The Pirates have a starting-pitching ERA of 3.56 that ranks fourth overall and second in the National League. They’re also fourth overall and second in the NL with 46 quality starts.
Since phenom rookie starter Paul Skenes joined the rotation on May 11, the Pirates are tied with the Dodgers for the fourth-best record (33-27) in the NL behind the Cardinals (37-24), Phillies (36-24) and Brewers (34-27). And Pittsburgh’s starting-pitching ERA with Skenes in place (3.51) is the best in the NL since May 11.
Pittsburgh’s problem is an offense that ranks 21st among the 30 MLB teams in runs per game (4.18), 23rd in homers, 25th in batting average, 26th in onbase percentage, 27th in slugging, 27th in OPS and 28th in OPS+.
In the first two games of the series the Cardinals will face Mitch Keller (3.46 ERA) and Skenes (1.90.) Keller has a 5.06 ERA this month. Skenes has a 1.14 ERA and 34.4 percent strikeout rate in his last six starts.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb
For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.
Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.
Bernie Miklasz
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
