Details are very thin and fleeting at the moment, but it seems clear that Israel has launched its counterstrike against Iranian interests in response to the large-scale attack directly on Israeli territory that occurred over the weekend.
The news began developing around 3:00 AM local time in Israel that explosions occurred in Iraq and in towns in Iran where well-known nuclear program-related facilities are located. There was also talk on social media of jets being heard flying very low in Eastern Syria and Iranian-related targets struck in Iraq, as well.
Isfahan news is confirmed now. First video. Multiple flights diverting from Isfahan, 450 km from Tehran. #Israel pic.twitter.com/N0XaQmNxNI
— Mickey (@0ye_hoye_mickey) April 19, 2024
I can't find any NOTAMs in Iranian airspace but multiple aircraft are diverting. pic.twitter.com/2mZPBswMLh
— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) April 19, 2024
Iran's Foreign minister earlier today: "In case the Israeli regime embarks on adventurism again and takes action against the interests of Iran, the next response from us will be immediate and at a maximum level"
— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) April 19, 2024
The extent of Israel’s reprisal campaign is unknown at this time. This could be a ‘one and done’ operation or it could be an extended campaign. Iran has made various ominous statements that it would respond in full force if Israel were to respond in kind to Tehran’s own revenge strikes.
The United States has told Israel it would not take part in a reprisal operation after air defenses, including U.S. and other allied assets, almost totally rebuffed Iran’s drone, ballistic, and cruise missile barrage over the weekend. This would limit the magnitude and frequency of Israel’s operation, but the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has been planning for this exact type of contingency for many years.
The current spike in hostilities, which are unprecedented, began when Israel bombed an annex of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, earlier in the month, killing three top IRGC commanders.
The escalation ladder at this point is the highest we have seen in the region. We will be updating this post with any new information that becomes available.
UPDATE: 10:15 PM EST—
A stream of videos, which remain unconfirmed are coming out of Iran of attacks near Iranian nuclear sites:
https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1781140879584944390
Video circulating on pro-#IRGCterrorists Telegram account purportedly from Esfahan, #Iran showing air defense systems activated and a siren. pic.twitter.com/hrWgs8hQ93
— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) April 19, 2024
Isfahan news is confirmed now. First video. Multiple flights diverting from Isfahan, 450 km from Tehran. #Israel pic.twitter.com/N0XaQmNxNI
— Mickey (@0ye_hoye_mickey) April 19, 2024
ABC is reporting direct strikes inside Iran.
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1781146432969298121
Iran’s state media is reporting it has activated air defenses.
#BREAKING Iran activates air defence over several cities: state media pic.twitter.com/QnVwCRcnhi
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) April 19, 2024
First reporting on potential targets beyond the proximity of nuclear development sites:
Iranian State Media is reporting that tonight’s Airstrike by the Israel Air Force may have Targeted the 8th Tactical Airbase of the Iranian Air Force, within Isfahan International Airport, which contains multiple Squadrons of F-14 “Tomcat” Fighter Aircraft.
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 19, 2024
Going after the Iranian Air Force would fit with Iran’s only known target during its barrage on Israel, the IAF’s Nevatim Air Base. Obviously this is very preliminary and from Iran directly, so take everything as a possibility at this point.
CBS is now reporting Israeli missiles have hit Iran.
Two U.S. officials confirm to CBS News that an Israeli missile hit Iran.
— Margaret Brennan (@margbrennan) April 19, 2024
Iran has cancelled flights into and out of Tehran:
INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS CANCELED AT TEHRAN'S IMAM KHOMEINI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT UNTIL 0700 GMT- MEHR NEWS AGENCY – Reuters News
— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) April 19, 2024
Iranian media saying no explosions occurred in Isfahan and that Iranian air defenses intercepted three threats:
إيران: وكالة "فارس": لم تقع أي انفجارات على الأرض في أصفهان
— الميادين عاجل (@AlMayadeenLive) April 19, 2024
إيران: مراسل الميادين في طهران: المتحدث باسم وكالة الفضاء الإيرانية أكد لنا أن الدفاعات الجوية تصدت لـ3 أهداف في سماء مدينة أصفهان
— الميادين عاجل (@AlMayadeenLive) April 19, 2024
#BREAKING Iran media says three explosions were heard near airbase in Isfahan pic.twitter.com/ylq6Yy8ZhT
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) April 19, 2024
BREAKING: Israeli officials notified the US earlier today they planned to retaliate in the next 24-48 hours, sources told @PeterMartin_PCM and me.
— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) April 19, 2024
Reuters reports that Iranian media says air defenses were activated against what was possibly a drone:
(Reuters) – Air defence systems in the Iranian city of Isfahan were activated against "an object suspected to be a drone", sources told the semi-official Fars news agency on Friday, which added that three explosions were heard near an army base in the city's northwest.
— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) April 19, 2024
BBC now also reporting that U.S. officials confirm an Israeli missile hit Iran:
Israeli missile hits Iran, US officials confirm, as blasts reported in Isfahan province https://t.co/BnWRuhYF8l
— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) April 19, 2024
Iran is saying they intercepted drones and that nothing hit the ground:
— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) April 19, 2024According to #Iran media & sources:
– Drones, not missiles
– No target hit on ground
– Air defense worked
– All normal on the ground
– Supreme National Security Council currently meeting
– #IRGC air defense on alert
– Airspace largely closed, air traffic grounded
– #Tabriz fine.
UPDATE: 11PM EST—
Fox is reporting that sources tell them the strike was “limited.”
CNN is says their sources confirmed the attack and that Israel agreed not to go after nuclear targets:
A US official confirms to me that Israel has carried out a strike against Iran. Both the official and another senior US official say Israel indicated they would not attack nuclear targets. US didn't "green light" this attack, the 2nd official told me.
— Alex Marquardt (@MarquardtA) April 19, 2024
Iran says nuclear facilities are untouched.
#BREAKING Iran media say nuclear facilities in Isfahan 'completely secure' pic.twitter.com/BhINwUkEAv
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) April 19, 2024
The Israeli government is not commenting at this time. This is pretty standard for any kinetic actions they take.
#BREAKING Israel military says 'don't have comment at this time' after reports of blasts in Iran pic.twitter.com/5NhsEgubDF
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) April 19, 2024
NBC also reports the U.S. was notified ahead of time of the strike and was not involved in the operation:
The U.S. was not involved in Israel's strike in Iran, a source familiar told NBC News, adding that there was a pre-notification to the U.S. from the Israelis about the strike. https://t.co/svE9M6q8gM
— NBC News (@NBCNews) April 19, 2024
This may have been a one and done. Hopefully calm going forward, but stimulating Iran’s most critical air defenses and getting their up-to-date electronic order of battle prior to something larger is a very real tactic, especially using vulnerable decoys. I think the likelihood is that this is not the case, but it still must be considered.
Remember, Israel is the absolute king of this exact tactic set and wrote the book on it using drones. They have systems specifically designed for this. Here is a full backgrounder from 2017 I believe (the date is wrong).
Decoys used to stimulate air defenses come in many flavors beyond light drones, including small air-launched cruise missiles that lack warheads and carry radar reflectors and can also feature EW packages.
Intelligence garnered can be used for mission planning of course and to increase the survival of assets via SEAD/DEAD, avoidance, and EW, but it can also influence what comes next overall and the risk involved with perusing various target sets with various capabilities.
UPDATE: 11:50 PM EST—
More reports that Isfahan Air Base, a key base for Iran’s small Tomcat fleet, colocated with the civilian airport, was the epicenter of the action:
“IRNA said air defenses fired at a major air base in Isfahan, which long has been home to Iran’s fleet of American-made F-14 Tomcats — purchased before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.” https://t.co/VyvkWOtuHJ
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) April 19, 2024
Jennifer Griffin reporting that the strike was designed to be limited and indirect in nature.
US military source: Israeli missile strikes in Iran "limited" in scope; not carried out by manned aircraft, according to well placed sources.
— Jennifer Griffin (@JenGriffinFNC) April 19, 2024
— Iran Defense|نیروهای مسلح جمهوری اسلامی ایران (@IranDefense) April 19, 2024Fars news publishes video from outside TAB 8 in Isfahan
Seems the attack that targeted the airbase was not an air or missile strike, but instead carried out with small UAVs (quadcopters) deployed from nearby
Claim is the attack thwarted, with minor damage like blown out windows https://t.co/IaGZZZBFOg
Iranian officials are downplaying the incident, calling it a failed strike:
An Iranian official has downplayed Israel’s reported attack as a “failed and humiliating” drone strike. Here’s everything we know so far: https://t.co/kKaBSTapJA
— TIME (@TIME) April 19, 2024
Iranian state media is downplaying the strike overnight. The limited scope of the event gives Iran an exit ramp. pic.twitter.com/Hyz6rtzRhW
— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) April 19, 2024
— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) April 19, 2024BREAKING: STATEMENT FROM SOURCES FROM IRAN
“Following the activation of air defense in some parts of the country to counter potential targets, reports from IRNA correspondents across the country indicate that so far, no hits or explosions caused by any air threats have been… pic.twitter.com/xt3ma3PpD2
Contact the author: Tyler@twz.com
