Is it a good time to invest in REITs right now?
The generous dividend payments enjoyed by REIT investors may look particularly attractive moving forward. With rate cuts on the horizon, dividend yields for REITs may look more favorable than yields on fixed-income securities and money market accounts.
The generous dividend payments enjoyed by REIT investors may look particularly attractive moving forward. With rate cuts on the horizon, dividend yields for REITs may look more favorable than yields on fixed-income securities and money market accounts.
However, our review of REIT balance sheets and debt suggests that REITs are well-positioned for economic uncertainty in 2023 because of their strong balance sheets. They are entering the new year with leverage near historical lows, and well-termed, mostly fixed-rate debt and very low current interest expense.
Investing in REITs can add some diversification to your portfolio and give you access to passive income, liquidity and excellent long-term returns. However, taxes can be more expensive with REITs compared to other investment options, and there are still risks involved with the real estate market.
Fitch Ratings' sector outlook for 2024 for U.S. Equity REITs is deteriorating. Fitch does not anticipate a recession in 2024, still weaker conditions are likely.
The FTSE Nareit All Equity index, consisting of REITs that exclude mortgages, generated a 15.9% annualized return during recessions and 22.7% in the year following the end of a downturn, according to the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts.
Top-performing REITs
Diversified Healthcare Trust's share price rebounded in 2023 to $3.74 per share at year-end, after falling from $3.09 per share down to 65 cents per share in 2022. Office REIT Office Properties Income Trust placed second, with a return of 89.3% for the fourth quarter.
Investing in REITs can be a passive, income-producing alternative to buying property directly. However, investors shouldn't be swayed by large dividend payments since REITs can underperform the market in a rising interest-rate environment.
REITs have typically enjoyed strong absolute and relative total return performances after monetary policy tightening cycles end. The valuation divergence between REITs and private real estate will likely converge in 2024, making REITs an attractive option for investors.
But since REITs are invested in property, there's more protection against the horror show of having shares crash to $0. By law, 75% of a REITs asset must be invested in real estate. The market value of the property owned by the REIT offers a bit of protection, as long as the value of the property doesn't go to zero.
What I wish I knew before investing in REITs?
This is the biggest and most important mistake that REIT investors keep on making. They see REITs as "income vehicles" and therefore, they will select their investments based on their dividend yield. In their mind, the higher the better. But in reality, the dividend is just a capital allocation decision.
Here are some of the main disadvantages of investing in a REIT. Market volatility: Value can fluctuate based on economic and market conditions. Interest rate risk: Changes in interest rates can affect the value of a REIT.
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Certificates of deposit (CDs)
- Bonds.
- Funds.
- Stocks.
- Alternative investments and cryptocurrencies.
- Real estate.
REITs. When interest rates are falling, dependable, regular income investments become harder to find. This benefits high-quality real estate investment trusts, or REITs. Strictly speaking, REITs are not fixed-income securities; their dividends are not predetermined but are based on income generated from real estate.
Investors in real estate investment trusts (REITs) were hit hard as the Federal Reserve has aggressively raised interest rates in 2022 and 2023. REITs invest in real estate, lease it to tenants and trade on the stock market like a stock.
After a lackluster performance for the majority of 2023, the Fed's latest decision to keep interest rates steady and an indication of three rate cuts in 2024 are likely to make real estate investment trusts (REITs) an attractive investment option for many.
REIT Stock Performance and the Interest Rate Environment
Over longer periods, there has generally been a positive association between periods of rising rates and REIT returns.
Any increase in the short-term interest rate eats into the profit—so if it doubled in our example above, there'd be no profit left. And if it goes up even higher, the REIT loses money. All of that makes mortgage REITs extremely volatile, and their dividends are also extremely unpredictable.
Historically, REITs are one of the better-performing sectors during inflationary periods. We can see this in the following image. You'll notice REITs are in the upper right area, showing they are outperformers during periods of high inflation.
REIT Market Outlook and Forecast
The REIT market is projected to see 2.6% year-over-year growth in 2023. The REIT market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.8% from 2022 to 2027. The market size is estimated to increase by $333.01 billion from 2022 to 2027.
What is the future of REITs in 2023?
2023: A sideways year
For the second consecutive year, rising borrowing costs were the most significant factor impacting REITs in 2023. The overall volume of purchases and sales remained low due to high interest rates and scarce capital.
As of Dec. 12, 2023 publicly traded U.S. equity REITs posted a one-year average dividend yield of 4.09 percent.
If you are interested in a real estate investment that is reliable, hands-off and offers dividends, REITs could be the answer. If you're looking for a higher-risk – but high-potential – investment or want to be able to invest in specific companies you admire, buying individual stocks could be the answer.
First, rising interest rates pushed up the costs of financing property purchases. Then, in March, some regional bank failures and false assumptions of an ensuing nationwide banking “crisis” triggered questions about the financial wherewithal of REIT tenants and possible follow-on effects on REITs themselves.
“I recommend REITs within a managed portfolio,” Devine said, noting that most investors should limit their REIT exposure to between 2 percent and 5 percent of their overall portfolio. Here again, a financial professional can help you determine what percentage of your portfolio you should allocate toward REITs, if any.
