What happens to REITs when interest rates go down?
REITs. When interest rates are falling, dependable, regular income investments become harder to find. This benefits high-quality real estate investment trusts, or REITs. Strictly speaking, REITs are not fixed-income securities; their dividends are not predetermined but are based on income generated from real estate.
REIT Stock Performance and the Interest Rate Environment
Over longer periods, there has generally been a positive association between periods of rising rates and REIT returns. This is because rising rates generally reflect improvement in the underlying fundamentals.
Share prices for US real estate investment trust stocks jumped in the fourth quarter of 2023, outperforming the broader market. The Dow Jones Equity All REIT Index closed the quarter with a 17.9% total return, while the S&P 500 logged an 11.7% return for the quarter.
Three stocks that could benefit in a big way from those developments are Realty Income(NYSE: O), Upstart Holdings(NASDAQ: UPST), and Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F). Let's look at why.
Bottom line. Investors eyeing REITs may find a potential recovery ahead. With rate cuts on the horizon, many publicly traded REITs have rebounded, and the industry as a whole seems well-poised for a recovery in the coming year.
The valuation divergence between REITs and private real estate will likely converge in 2024, making REITs an attractive option for investors. Solid balance sheets will enable REITs to navigate ongoing economic uncertainty while providing an advantage in terms of acquisitions and growth.
REITs crashed due to rising interest rates. But they are now set to recover as interest rates are cut. The window of opportunity is closing. Now could be your last chance to buy REITs at these low prices.
Despite that late-year surge, it is unlikely that 2023 REIT returns will create lasting happy memories for investors. However, as we look back on 2023, we note two key trends that we believe will gain increasing traction in 2024 and beyond.
The stock he keeps buying
Throughout 2023, Buffett consistently added more shares to one of Berkshire's top holdings, Occidental Petroleum (OXY -1.00%). Berkshire Hathaway established its position in the company when it put up $10 billion in capital to facilitate Occidental's acquisition of Anadarko.
Fitch Ratings' sector outlook for 2024 for U.S. Equity REITs is deteriorating. Fitch does not anticipate a recession in 2024, still weaker conditions are likely.
Which stocks will soar in 2024?
On Holding (NYSE: ONON), Roblox (NYSE: RBLX), and Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) are showing strong business growth that could deliver significant upside in the years to come, according to these Motley Fool contributors. But here's why these stocks could take off this year.
Higher interest rates tend to negatively affect earnings and stock prices (often with the exception of the financial sector). Changes in the interest rate tend to impact the stock market quickly but often have a lagged effect on other key economic sectors such as mortgages and auto loans.
REIT Market Outlook and Forecast
The REIT market is projected to see 2.6% year-over-year growth in 2023. The REIT market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.8% from 2022 to 2027. The market size is estimated to increase by $333.01 billion from 2022 to 2027.
Nine Reasons Not to Invest in REITs
But, REITs are not risk free. They may have highly variable returns, are sensitive to changes in interest rates, have income tax implications, may not be liquid, and fees can impact total returns.
Here are some of the main disadvantages of investing in a REIT. Market volatility: Value can fluctuate based on economic and market conditions. Interest rate risk: Changes in interest rates can affect the value of a REIT.
The ongoing higher interest rate environment will continue to create challenges for commercial real estate (CRE). However, our review of REIT balance sheets and debt suggests that REITs are well-positioned for economic uncertainty in 2023 because of their strong balance sheets.
There is no set lifetime for the trust in most cases. Investors who buy publicly traded shares in a REIT can usually buy as much or little as they like and dispose of the shares when they want or need to. However, if an investor buys a non-traded or private REIT, the investment should be considered illiquid.
Interest Rates. During periods of economic growth, REIT prices tend to rise along with interest rates. The reason is that a growing economy increases the value of REITs because the value of their underlying real estate assets increases.
Does Warren Buffett invest in REITs? The short answer is yes. Berkshire Hathaway does allocate capital real estate ownership throughout REITs. Learn Warren Buffett REIT investments below.
Any increase in the short-term interest rate eats into the profit—so if it doubled in our example above, there'd be no profit left. And if it goes up even higher, the REIT loses money. All of that makes mortgage REITs extremely volatile, and their dividends are also extremely unpredictable.
Will REITs rebound in 2024?
After a lackluster performance for the majority of 2023, the Fed's latest decision to keep interest rates steady and an indication of three rate cuts in 2024 are likely to make real estate investment trusts (REITs) an attractive investment option for many.
But with the Fed signaling a potential pause on rate hikes, the time for a recovery in REITs may finally be near. And if investors look beyond negative headlines on interest rates and empty office buildings, there are actually plenty of opportunities with strong fundamentals to be found.
Welltower Inc.
Welltower is a health care REIT that invests in health care facilities, including senior housing, specialty care facilities and medical office buildings. The REIT rose 41.8% in 2023, the best performance of any stock on this list.
Further, Federal Realty has not only paid but has raised its annual dividend for 55 consecutive years, holding “the single longest annual dividend growth record among all REITs.”
As measured by the S&P 500 Index, the broader market gained 20%. AppLovin Corporation, the top-performing stock of 2023, surged 258%.
