What is the outlook for bonds in 2024?
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Barclays, while capitulating on their views that rate cuts were unlikely before the fourth quarter of next year, forecast yields to end 2024 at 4% and 4.35% respectively.
For now at least, analysts are anticipating S&P 500 earnings growth will continue to accelerate in the first half of 2024. Analysts project S&P 500 earnings will grow 3.9% year-over-year in the first quarter and another 9% in the second quarter.
High-quality bond investments remain attractive. With yields on investment-grade-rated1 bonds still near 15-year highs,2 we believe investors should continue to consider intermediate- and longer-term bonds to lock in those high yields.
Credit spreads remain very tight, and the yield you can earn when adjusted for duration favors high-quality intermediate bonds. So, investors are not really being paid to take on credit or interest rate risk.” Others have said that 2024 might be the time to invest toward the longer end of the risk-return spectrum.
Despite Treasuries' recent rally, yields remain very compelling, with the US 10-year Treasury now yielding 3.9%. For bond investors, these conditions are nearly ideal. After all, most of a bond's return over time comes from its yield. And falling yields—which we expect in the latter half of 2024—boost bond prices.
These forecasts offer valuable insights into interest rate expectations. ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
Mortgage rate predictions March 2024
Many forecasters expect rates to remain well under 7 percent this year. McBride expects them to drop all the way to 5.75 percent by the end of 2024.
Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
Will 2024 be a bull or bear market?
After a spectacular 2023, stocks are off to the races again in 2024. YTD, the Dow is up 2.72%, the S&P is up 7.28%, and the Nasdaq is up 6.41%. (And that's on top of last year's 13.7%, 24.2%, and 43.4% respectively.)
- Bonds and bond ETFs.
- Dividend-paying stocks and ETFs.
- Master limited partnerships.
- Real estate investment trusts.
- Annuities.
| Month | Minimum | Maximum |
|---|---|---|
| January | 33,010 | 37,224 |
| February | 32,845 | 37,039 |
| March | 31,203 | 35,187 |
| April | 32,631 | 36,797 |
In every recession since 1950, bonds have delivered higher returns than stocks and cash. That's partly because the Federal Reserve and other central banks have often cut interest rates in hopes of stimulating economic activity during a recession. Rate cuts typically cause bond yields to fall and bond prices to rise.
Bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates. This means that when interest rates go up, bond prices go down and when interest rates go down, bond prices go up.
Bonds, especially government and high-grade corporate bonds, are often less volatile than stocks. Therefore, an investment in bonds could provide a smoother and more predictable path to your financial goals, particularly if you're nearing retirement and have a lower risk tolerance.
If sold prior to maturity, market price may be higher or lower than what you paid for the bond, leading to a capital gain or loss. If bought and held to maturity investor is not affected by market risk.
Inflation and Fed hikes have pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high. 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 5.9% and 6.1% in 2024. Instead of waiting for rates to drop, homebuyers should consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition next year.
"We would expect mortgage rates to be closer to 6.5% in 2025 than the current rate of 8%." Other projections align with that rate expectation.
But barring any major shocks to the system, most analysts agree that mortgage rates are unlikely to return to 3% in the foreseeable future. Therefore, homebuyers who are waiting for a better deal may be disappointed and miss out on other opportunities in the housing market.
How high will interest rates go in 2025?
If all goes well, by the time 2025 comes around, we could see mortgage rates closer to 6%, or maybe even lower. But, unfortunately, there's no guarantee.” “I expect we will end the year with rates at about 6% to 6.2% -- much higher than during the pandemic but still relatively low by historical standards.”
ING predicts rates to range from 5% in the second quarter of 2023, rising to 5.5% in the third quarter, and then falling back to 5% in the final quarter of the year. They also predict interest rates ranging between 3% and 4.25% in 2024, staying at 3% by the end of 2025.
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.
McBride shares that while the high-rate environment will persist, rates will ease for most borrowers in 2024. Increased competition between lenders may help drivers secure a good rate. However, he warns, “don't expect auto loan rates to fall enough to offset the increases we've seen over the past couple of years.”
After weighing your timeline, tolerance to risk and goals, you'll likely know whether CDs or bonds are right for you. CDs are usually best for investors looking for a safe, shorter-term investment. Bonds are typically longer, higher-risk investments that deliver greater returns and a predictable income.
