Do REITs do well in a recession?
REITs historically perform well during and after recessions | Pensions & Investments.
When rates rise, REITs fall. At least that's the conventional wisdom. In recessions, interest rates fall. Normally bullish for REITsāconsider them a āsecond-levelā bet on a bond bounce.
With rate cuts on the line in the coming year, dividend yields for REITs are likely to be on the attractive side compared with the yields on fixed-income and money-market accounts. This will make REITs desirable to investors.
Still, in a general sense, they are income securities and do trade like income securities. You can usually count on high-yielding REITs moving up when rates are moving down. Individual REITs like Realty Income Corp.
REIT Market Outlook and Forecast
The REIT market is projected to see 2.6% year-over-year growth in 2023. The REIT market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.8% from 2022 to 2027. The market size is estimated to increase by $333.01 billion from 2022 to 2027.
REITs have typically enjoyed strong absolute and relative total return performances after monetary policy tightening cycles end. The valuation divergence between REITs and private real estate will likely converge in 2024, making REITs an attractive option for investors.
This is known as the geographic market test. Section 856 (d)(2) (C) excludes impermissible tenant service income (ITSI) from the definition of rent from real property, making it ābad incomeā for the 75% and 95% REIT gross income tests.
Nine Reasons Not to Invest in REITs
But, REITs are not risk free. They may have highly variable returns, are sensitive to changes in interest rates, have income tax implications, may not be liquid, and fees can impact total returns.
The value of a REIT is based on the real estate market, so if interest rates increase and the demand for properties goes down as a result, it could lead to lower property values, negatively impacting the value of your investment.
This is the biggest and most important mistake that REIT investors keep on making. They see REITs as "income vehicles" and therefore, they will select their investments based on their dividend yield. In their mind, the higher the better. But in reality, the dividend is just a capital allocation decision.
What is the outlook for REITs in 2024?
In 2024, we believe the global footprint of REITs and listed real estate companies will continue to expand, with digitally driven real estate likely to account for a growing share of that enlargement. The past two years have been challenging for REIT returns, as the Fed ramped up its fight against inflation.
Publicly traded REITs have the particular risk of losing value as interest rates rise, which typically sends investment capital into bonds.
But from a REIT-wide perspective, one of the biggest problems has been rising interest rates. Rising interest rates impact REITs in a number of ways. Directly, interest expenses can go up as the interest rates on variable-coupon debt increase and as fixed-rate debt rolls over.
The stock he keeps buying
Throughout 2023, Buffett consistently added more shares to one of Berkshire's top holdings, Occidental Petroleum (OXY -1.00%). Berkshire Hathaway established its position in the company when it put up $10 billion in capital to facilitate Occidental's acquisition of Anadarko.
The strong fourth quarter carried over to an 11.3% return for 2023 as a whole for the REIT-focused index, underperforming the S&P 500's 26.3% return for the year.
The ongoing higher interest rate environment will continue to create challenges for commercial real estate (CRE). However, our review of REIT balance sheets and debt suggests that REITs are well-positioned for economic uncertainty in 2023 because of their strong balance sheets.
There is no set lifetime for the trust in most cases. Investors who buy publicly traded shares in a REIT can usually buy as much or little as they like and dispose of the shares when they want or need to. However, if an investor buys a non-traded or private REIT, the investment should be considered illiquid.
Commercial property investments can provide a high and potentially rising rental income and some capital growth over the long term. REITs often have long-term lease agreements with tenants, which can help to make rental income and dividends paid relatively reliable.
Further, Federal Realty has not only paid but has raised its annual dividend for 55 consecutive years, holding āthe single longest annual dividend growth record among all REITs.ā
Historically, REITs are one of the better-performing sectors during inflationary periods. We can see this in the following image. You'll notice REITs are in the upper right area, showing they are outperformers during periods of high inflation.
Can you become a millionaire from REITs?
REITs have been wealth-creating machines over the years. Realty Income, Equity Lifestyle, and Prologis have all outperformed the S&P 500 over the long term. These well-built REITs should continue enriching their investors in the future. They have the potential to turn long-term, consistent investors into millionaires.
REITs provide natural protection against inflation. Real estate rents and values tend to increase when prices do. This supports REIT dividend growth and provides a reliable stream of income even during inflationary periods.
Investors in real estate investment trusts (REITs) were hit hard as the Federal Reserve has aggressively raised interest rates in 2022 and 2023. REITs invest in real estate, lease it to tenants and trade on the stock market like a stock.
āI recommend REITs within a managed portfolio,ā Devine said, noting that most investors should limit their REIT exposure to between 2 percent and 5 percent of their overall portfolio. Here again, a financial professional can help you determine what percentage of your portfolio you should allocate toward REITs, if any.
Since most non-traded REITs are illiquid, there are often restrictions to redeeming and selling shares. While a REIT is still open to public investors, investors may be able to sell their shares back to the REIT. However, this sale usually comes at a discount; leaving only about 70% to 95% of the original value.
